See Sooner, Act Faster (Management on the Cutting Edge) by George S. Day & Paul J. H. Schoemaker

Author:George S. Day & Paul J. H. Schoemaker [Day, George S. & Schoemaker, Paul J. H.]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Business vigilance, vigilance, disruption, digital disruption, business intelligence, leadership, strategy, scenario planning, future trends, SWOT analysis, organizational attention
ISBN: 9780262043311
Publisher: The MIT Press
Published: 2019-09-05T21:00:00+00:00

Philosopher Charles Peirce argued that neither inductive logic (reasoning from specific examples to general principles) nor deductive logic (from general precepts to specific truths) can truly generate new insight.8 Instead, he proposed abductive reasoning to allow for “logical leaps of the mind” that go beyond deductive necessity to find fresh new explanations.9 Abduction seeks to create “new facts” by using existing ones plus creative inferences. This approach is especially important when facing ambiguity because there are often many possible explanations or conjectures for the incomplete issues.

The aim of abduction is to generate new knowledge by steering the generation of competing hypotheses, by abandoning old convictions and seeking better ones. As strategy expert and author Roger Martin has observed, “When you are facing something that doesn’t obey the previous rules or have some data (but not enough to be inductive), you make an inference to the best explanation of what is going on.”10 This logical leap of the mind leads to a new idea, and that idea can only be proven to be right or valid by the unfolding of time and future events. Put simply, abductive reasoning encourages organizations to pursue ideas beyond the tried and true. This means at times stepping into the dark corners of ignorance while modulating reasonable doubts for positive effects.11

Facing resistance to the adoption of LEDs during the early years (circa 2003), a few business units within Philips Lighting used abduction to spur action. They made bold, scary statements, for instance, about LED technology replacing incandescent and halogen lighting. Furthermore, they helped spur this new trend through high-profile marketing moves. For example, the New Year’s Times Square Ball in New York had been lit with incandescent lighting since its launch in 1907. Philips helped arrange for this famous ball to be lit by LEDs as it descended in the final countdown during the last minute of 2011.12 This very notable LED application became the talk of the town and far beyond. Many players in the value chain paid attention. Philips launched other high-profile projects as well, such as lighting up city nightscapes and famous building facades to demonstrate the broad applicability, aesthetics, and reliability of LEDs.

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